Live prediction market odds for Hawaii Governor winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the Hawaii gubernatorial election set for November 3, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence local policies and party control in a historically Democratic state.
Democratic party leads the “Hawaii Governor winner” event at 94.5% implied probability, followed by Republican party at 4.5%. A 3.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, party affiliation, and recent polling data. Additionally, local issues and national trends can sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.
Odds can fluctuate frequently as new information emerges, such as candidate announcements or shifts in public opinion. Major events like debates or endorsements also impact market prices.
The outcome will determine the state's leadership and influence policy decisions on key issues like tourism, healthcare, and education. It also affects the balance of power between political parties in Hawaii.
Hawaii Governor winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic party leads at 95% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican party at 5%.
Democratic party currently leads at 95% implied probability. Behind Democratic party, Republican party at 5% are the next closest contenders. A 3.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Democratic party
94.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Hawaii pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
