Live prediction market odds for How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2027-01-01
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking predictions on how low Bitcoin will drop in 2026. Market sentiment is influenced by regulatory developments, macroeconomic factors, and investor behavior in the cryptocurrency space.
↓ 60,000 leads the “How low will Bitcoin get in 2026” event at 80.0% implied probability, followed by ↓ 40,000 at 25.5%. A 40.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include regulatory changes, market demand, and technological advancements in blockchain. Economic conditions and investor sentiment also play crucial roles.
Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants on various outcomes, reflecting collective expectations. Prices fluctuate based on new information and market dynamics.
Bitcoin's price in 2026 could impact investor confidence and the broader cryptocurrency market. It may also influence regulatory discussions and adoption rates.
How low will Bitcoin get in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). ↓ 60,000 leads at 80% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include ↓ 40,000 at 26%.
↓ 60,000 currently leads at 80% implied probability. Behind ↓ 60,000, ↓ 40,000 at 26% are the next closest contenders. The 40.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $60000.00 starting Jan 1, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
PolymarketThis market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
↓ 60,000
80.0% avg
