Live prediction market odds for How low will Bitcoin get in March?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-01
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking predictions on how low Bitcoin will drop in March 2026. Market sentiment is influenced by factors such as regulatory changes, macroeconomic trends, and investor behavior in the cryptocurrency space.
Below $50,000.00 leads the “How low will Bitcoin get in March” event at 25.5% implied probability, followed by Below $60,000.00 at 25.5%. A 49.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include regulatory developments, market demand, and macroeconomic conditions. Investor sentiment and technological advancements in blockchain can also play a significant role.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell contracts based on their expectations. Prices reflect the collective sentiment about Bitcoin's future performance.
Understanding potential price movements can help investors make informed decisions. It also reflects broader trends in the cryptocurrency market and investor confidence.
How low will Bitcoin get in March is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Below $50,000.00 leads at 26% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Below $60,000.00 at 26%.
Below $50,000.00 currently leads at 26% implied probability. Behind Below $50,000.00, Below $60,000.00 at 26% are the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Mar 31, 2026 is ever below $60000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.
PolymarketThis market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Below $50,000.00
25.5% avg
