Question 1

What factors influence the number of bills President Trump might sign?

Accepted Answer

Factors include the political landscape, party control in Congress, and ongoing negotiations with lawmakers. Legislative priorities and public opinion can also play significant roles.

Question 2

How does this event relate to the 2026 midterm elections?

Accepted Answer

The number of bills signed can impact voter sentiment and party momentum heading into the elections. Successful legislation may bolster support for the incumbent party.

Question 3

What types of bills are likely to be considered for signing?

Accepted Answer

Bills related to key issues such as healthcare, infrastructure, and economic policy are often prioritized. The administration's agenda and current events will heavily influence the types of legislation presented.

Question 4

What is "How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). 0 leads at 32% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include 6 at 28%, 5 at 27%, 2 at 26%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

0 currently leads at 32% implied probability. Behind 0, 6 at 28% and 5 at 27% and 2 at 26% are the next closest contenders. The 55.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: 0: 4¢ on Kalshi, 59¢ on Polymarket. 6: 14¢ on Kalshi, 41¢ on Polymarket. 5: 14¢ on Kalshi, 40¢ on Polymarket. 2: 14¢ on Kalshi, 38¢ on Polymarket. The 55.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that 0 is at 32%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 32¢ means the market estimates a 32% probability that 0 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 32¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 213% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	0¢	4¢	96¢	100¢
Polymarket	59.0%	40¢	78¢	22¢	60¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	14.0%	10¢	18¢	82¢	90¢
Polymarket	41.0%	5¢	77¢	23¢	95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	14.0%	10¢	18¢	82¢	90¢
Polymarket	40.0%	3¢	77¢	23¢	97¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	14.0%	10¢	18¢	82¢	90¢
Polymarket	38.0%	2¢	74¢	26¢	98¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	14.0%	10¢	18¢	82¢	90¢
Polymarket	38.0%	2¢	74¢	26¢	98¢

How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026?

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