Live prediction market odds for How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
Kalshi
2027-02-01
230-233 leads the “How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms” event at 14.0% implied probability. Other contenders include 234-237 (12.0%), 238-241 (10.0%), 226-229 (9.9%), and Above 249 (9.4%). Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread.
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms is a prediction market event currently tracked across 1 platform (Kalshi). 230-233 leads at 14% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include 234-237 at 12%, 238-241 at 10%, 226-229 at 10%.
230-233 currently leads at 14% implied probability. Behind 230-233, 234-237 at 12% and 238-241 at 10% and 226-229 at 10% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi: 230-233: 14¢ on Kalshi. 234-237: 12¢ on Kalshi. 238-241: 10¢ on Kalshi. 226-229: 10¢ on Kalshi. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 14¢ means the market estimates a 14% probability that 230-233 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 14¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 614% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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230-233
14.0% avg
