Live prediction market odds for How many launches will SpaceX have in March?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-03-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the number of SpaceX launches scheduled for March 2026. This event is crucial as it reflects SpaceX's operational capacity and impacts the broader aerospace industry and satellite deployment timelines.
Above 12 is priced at 98.9% implied probability for the “How many launches will SpaceX have in March” event. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.2% spread.
Launch schedules are affected by technical readiness, regulatory approvals, and payload availability. Weather conditions can also lead to delays or rescheduling.
SpaceX has been increasing its launch frequency over the years, aiming for more regular missions. Historical data shows a trend towards more launches as the company scales operations.
SpaceX's launches play a pivotal role in satellite deployment and space exploration initiatives. Their success can influence market confidence and investment in the aerospace sector.
How many launches will SpaceX have in March is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Above 12 leads at 99% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Above 12 currently leads at 99% implied probability. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.2% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Above 12
98.9% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf SpaceX has more than 10 launches in Mar 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between March 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
