Live prediction market odds for How much will the US acquire Greenland for?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Kalshi
2029-01-22
$0 / No Acquisition leads the “How much will the US acquire Greenland for” event at 82.0% implied probability. Other contenders include $600 billion to $899 billion (4.6%), $100 billion to $299 billion (3.3%), $300 billion to $599 billion (2.9%), and $10 billion to $99 billion (2.1%). Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread.
How much will the US acquire Greenland for is a prediction market event currently tracked across 1 platform (Kalshi). $0 / No Acquisition leads at 82% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include $600 billion to $899 billion at 5%, $100 billion to $299 billion at 3%, $300 billion to $599 billion at 3%.
$0 / No Acquisition currently leads at 82% implied probability. Behind $0 / No Acquisition, $600 billion to $899 billion at 5% and $100 billion to $299 billion at 3% and $300 billion to $599 billion at 3% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi: $0 / No Acquisition: 82¢ on Kalshi. $600 billion to $899 billion: 5¢ on Kalshi. $100 billion to $299 billion: 3¢ on Kalshi. $300 billion to $599 billion: 3¢ on Kalshi. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 82¢ means the market estimates a 82% probability that $0 / No Acquisition will be the outcome. Buying one share at 82¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 22% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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$0 / No Acquisition
82.0% avg
