Live prediction market odds for Human moon landing in 2026?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion.
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Polymarket / Opinion
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Opinion are tracking the potential for a human moon landing in 2026. Achieving this milestone would mark a significant advancement in space exploration and could influence future missions to Mars and beyond.
Human moon landing in 2026 is priced at 12.3% implied probability for the “Human moon landing in 2026” event. A 16.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon, with several missions planned to test technology and systems. These missions will lay the groundwork for sustainable lunar exploration.
Technical challenges, funding, and international collaboration are critical factors that could influence the timeline and success of the mission. Additionally, advancements in rocket technology and lunar habitat development play a vital role.
Public interest can drive funding and political support for space missions, influencing their priority on national agendas. Increased media coverage and educational outreach can also inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers.
Human moon landing in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion). Human moon landing in 2026 leads at 12% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Human moon landing in 2026 currently leads at 12% implied probability. The 16.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Human moon landing in 2026
12.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion.
OpinionThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
