Live prediction market odds for IA-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-11-04
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the IA-01 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.
Democratic Party leads the “IA-01 House winner” event at 55.8% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 35.3%. A 38.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues play significant roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, national trends and voter turnout predictions can impact market movements.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom and sentiment of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.
The IA-01 House race is significant as it may determine control of the House of Representatives. Results from this district can also serve as indicators of broader political trends in the state and nationally.
IA-01 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Democratic Party leads at 56% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 35%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 56% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 35% are the next closest contenders. The 38.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democratic Party
55.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for IA-1 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
