Live prediction market odds for IA-02 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Lindsay James was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 97%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee in Iowa's 2nd congressional district. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the party's strategy and voter turnout in the upcoming elections.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Lindsay JamesWINNER | 99% | 96% |
Clint Twedt-Ball | 2% | 97% |
Kathy Dolter | 10% | 2% |
Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, local issues and voter sentiment can significantly impact the race.
The primary election for the IA-02 Democratic nominee is scheduled for June 2, 2026. This date is critical for determining the party's candidate for the general election.
Prediction markets aggregate real-time betting odds that reflect the collective sentiment of participants regarding candidates' chances. As events unfold, such as debates or campaign events, these odds can fluctuate based on perceived candidate viability.
IA-02 Democratic nominee was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Lindsay James led the market at 97% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Clint Twedt-Ball at 50%, Kathy Dolter at 6%.
Lindsay James held the lead at 97% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Lindsay James, Clint Twedt-Ball at 50% and Kathy Dolter at 6% were the next closest contenders. The 95.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Lindsay James
97.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Kathy Dolter wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IA-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
