Live prediction market odds for IA-02 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-02
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee in Iowa's 2nd congressional district. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the party's strategy and voter turnout in the upcoming elections.
Kathy Dolter leads the “IA-02 Democratic nominee” event at 10.3% implied probability, followed by Clint Twedt-Ball at 7.8%. A 2.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, local issues and voter sentiment can significantly impact the race.
The primary election for the IA-02 Democratic nominee is scheduled for June 2, 2026. This date is critical for determining the party's candidate for the general election.
Prediction markets aggregate real-time betting odds that reflect the collective sentiment of participants regarding candidates' chances. As events unfold, such as debates or campaign events, these odds can fluctuate based on perceived candidate viability.
IA-02 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Kathy Dolter leads at 10% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Clint Twedt-Ball at 8%.
Kathy Dolter currently leads at 10% implied probability. Behind Kathy Dolter, Clint Twedt-Ball at 8% are the next closest contenders. A 2.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Kathy Dolter
10.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Kathy Dolter wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IA-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
