Live prediction market odds for IA-02 Republican nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-02
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the IA-02 Republican nominee ahead of the 2026 elections. This contest will influence party dynamics and candidate positioning in a critical swing district, impacting broader electoral strategies.
Joe Mitchell leads the “IA-02 Republican nominee” event at 95.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Charlie McClintock (2.9%), and Shannon Lundgren (1.7%). A 2.6% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate polling, fundraising efforts, and endorsements. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and national political trends can impact predictions.
IA-02 is considered a competitive district that can sway election outcomes. Winning the nomination here can provide momentum for candidates in the broader electoral landscape.
The nomination process will culminate in the primary election scheduled for June 2, 2026. Candidates will ramp up their campaigns leading to this date, making early predictions crucial.
IA-02 Republican nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Joe Mitchell leads at 96% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Charlie McClintock at 3%, Shannon Lundgren at 2%.
Joe Mitchell currently leads at 96% implied probability. Behind Joe Mitchell, Charlie McClintock at 3% and Shannon Lundgren at 2% are the next closest contenders. A 2.6% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Joe Mitchell
95.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Shannon Lundgren wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 IA-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
