Live prediction market odds for Idaho Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Idaho Senate winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the state.
Republican party leads the “Idaho Senate winner” event at 92.5% implied probability, followed by Democratic party at 6.8%. A 1.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The Idaho Senate election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle in the United States.
Factors influencing the odds include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and prevailing political issues in Idaho. Polling data and voter turnout predictions also play a significant role.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their predictions of outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning.
Idaho Senate winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican party leads at 93% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic party at 7%.
Republican party currently leads at 93% implied probability. Behind Republican party, Democratic party at 7% are the next closest contenders. A 1.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Republican party
92.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Idaho for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
