Live prediction market odds for IL-07 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-17
This market resolved on 2026-03-17. La Shawn Ford was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee in Illinois' 7th congressional district ahead of the 2026 elections. The outcome will influence party dynamics and strategies in a key district, making it a focal point for both local and national political interests.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
La Shawn FordWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Anabel Mendoza | 1% | 50% |
Anthony Driver Jr | 1% | 50% |
David Ehrlich |
Polling data, candidate fundraising, and endorsements play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and demographic trends in the district can impact predictions.
Winning the IL-07 seat is vital for maintaining Democratic control in the House. The outcome can also signal broader trends in voter preferences and party alignment leading into the general election.
Candidates will campaign leading up to the primary election scheduled for March 2026. Key events, such as debates and community forums, will occur in the months leading up to the vote.
IL-07 Democratic nominee was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). La Shawn Ford led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Anabel Mendoza at 26%, Anthony Driver Jr at 26%, David Ehrlich at 26%.
La Shawn Ford held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind La Shawn Ford, Anabel Mendoza at 26% and Anthony Driver Jr at 26% and David Ehrlich at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Richard Boykin wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IL-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
| 1% |
| 50% |
Felix Tello | 1% | 50% |
Jason Friedman | 1% | 50% |
Jazmin Robinson | 1% | 50% |
Melissa Conyears Ervin | 1% | 50% |
Richard Boykin | 1% | 50% |
Rory Hoskins | 1% | 50% |
Kina Collins | 2% | 50% |
Reed Showalter | 2% | 50% |
Thomas Fisher | 2% | 50% |
La Shawn Ford
99.5% avg
