Live prediction market odds for IN-02 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the IN-02 House race for the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in the House of Representatives, impacting legislative priorities and governance.
Republican Party leads the “IN-02 House winner” event at 76.5% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 40.8%. A 59.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for IN-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can sway voter sentiment.
The election for the IN-02 House seat is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election date for federal offices.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning.
IN-02 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 77% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 41%.
Republican Party currently leads at 77% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 41% are the next closest contenders. The 59.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Republican Party
76.5% avg
