Live prediction market odds for Iowa Governor Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Iowa Governor Election Winner for the upcoming election on November 3, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence state policies and party dynamics leading into the 2028 presidential race.
Democrat leads the “Iowa Governor Election Winner” event at 60.8% implied probability, followed by Republican at 40.3%. A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign strategies significantly impact the odds. Additionally, voter turnout and key issues in Iowa can sway predictions.
The Iowa Governor Election is set for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle in the United States.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and probabilities assigned to each candidate's chances of winning.
Iowa Governor Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democrat leads at 61% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican at 40%.
Democrat currently leads at 61% implied probability. Behind Democrat, Republican at 40% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democrat
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Iowa pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
60.8% avg
