Live prediction market odds for Japan: Stage of Elimination. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-07-19
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking Japan's stage of elimination in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The performance of the national team will be influenced by player form, coaching strategies, and matchups against other teams in the tournament.
Round of 32 leads the “Japan: Stage of Elimination” event at 51.8% implied probability, followed by Final at 9.2%. A 9.7% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include the team's current form, injuries to key players, and historical performance against potential opponents. Additionally, coaching decisions and tactical approaches will play a crucial role in their success.
Prediction markets aggregate real-time odds based on collective insights and betting behavior. Shifts in these odds can indicate changing perceptions of Japan's likelihood to advance through the tournament stages.
Japan can potentially reach several stages, including the round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or even the final. Each stage presents unique challenges and requires consistent performance against top international teams.
Japan: Stage of Elimination is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Round of 32 leads at 52% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Final at 9%.
Round of 32 currently leads at 52% implied probability. Behind Round of 32, Final at 9% are the next closest contenders. The 9.7% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Round of 32
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Japan is eliminated in the Quarterfinals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this Contract, if a team withdraws, forfeits or is disqualified at any point during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, their stage of elimination will be determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to withdrawal, forfeit or disqualification. For example, if a team withdraws after winning their Round of 32 match, the market titled "Round of 16" will resolve to Yes since that would be the next stage where they would have been eliminated had they continued competing. Note: If a team loses in the Semifinals, the market titled "Semifinals" will resolve to Yes, regardless of whether they win the third-place match. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
Polymarket51.8% avg
