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Live prediction market odds for Kansas Democratic Senate nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Trade $20, get $20

Sign-up bonus on Kalshi. T&Cs apply.

Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Jun 17, 2026Last used 14 mins ago2 min avg claim

Kalshi / Polymarket

Kansas Democratic Senate nominee?

2026-08-04

About This Market

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Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Kansas Democratic Senate nominee for the upcoming 2026 election. The outcome will influence party dynamics and campaign strategies in a state that has historically leaned Republican, making this nomination critical for Democratic efforts to gain ground in the region.

Adam Hamilton leads the “Kansas Democratic Senate nominee” event at 86.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Erik Murray (3.1%), Christy Davis (5.3%), Sharice Davids (2.4%), and Sandy Spidel Neumann (2.3%). A 8.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
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Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
Sign-up bonus

Trade $20, get $20

Sign-up bonus on Kalshi. T&Cs apply.

Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Jun 17, 2026Last used 14 mins ago2 min avg claim

Live Markets

2 platforms
AH
Adam Hamilton
84% Avg
Kalshi86¢
Polymarket88¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
82.5%79¢86¢14¢21¢
PolymarketPolymarket
86.0%84¢88¢12¢16¢
EM
Erik Murray
2% Avg
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%0¢6¢94¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
CD
Christy Davis
7% Avg
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
5.0%1¢9¢92¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
9.0%8¢10¢90¢92¢
SD
Sharice DavidsARB
2% Avg
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
4.5%1¢8¢92¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢
SS
Sandy Spidel Neumann
2% Avg
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.5%2¢3¢97¢98¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Christy Davis

Christy Davis is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate from Kansas in the 2026 election. She previously served as the Kansas director for USDA Rural Development under President Biden and ran for Kansas' 1st Congressional District in 2020. Davis is running for the Senate seat currently held by Republican Senator Roger Marshall.

About Sharice Davids

Sharice Davids is the U.S. Representative for Kansas's 3rd congressional district, serving her fourth term in Congress. She previously served as a White House Fellow in 2016–2017. Her current role is relevant to the Kansas Democratic Senate nominee prediction market.

About Patrick Schmidt

Patrick Schmidt is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate from Kansas in the 2026 election. He currently serves as a state senator for Kansas's 19th district, a position he has held since January 2025. Schmidt is running for the Senate seat currently held by Republican Senator Roger Marshall.

About Anne Parelkar

Anne Parelkar is an immigration attorney from Overland Park, Kansas, running for the U.S. Senate in 2026. She has practiced law for over a decade and is admitted to practice in Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas. Parelkar is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall in the upcoming election.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Kansas Democratic Senate nominee?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts are key factors that shape the odds. Additionally, the political climate in Kansas leading up to the election plays a significant role.

How does the Kansas Democratic Senate nominee impact the 2026 election?

The nominee's ability to mobilize voters and attract funding can significantly affect Democratic chances in a traditionally Republican state. A strong candidate may also influence down-ballot races.

What platforms are providing odds for this event?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the Kansas Democratic Senate nominee. They offer real-time odds based on market sentiment and emerging political developments.

What is "Kansas Democratic Senate nominee?" and why does it matter?

Kansas Democratic Senate nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Adam Hamilton leads at 86% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Erik Murray at 3%, Christy Davis at 5%, Sharice Davids at 2%.

What is moving the odds on "Kansas Democratic Senate nominee?"?

Adam Hamilton currently leads at 86% implied probability. Behind Adam Hamilton, Erik Murray at 3% and Christy Davis at 5% and Sharice Davids at 2% are the next closest contenders. The 8.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
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Stats
Spread8.0%
Platforms2
Candidates9
Leader

Adam Hamilton

86.0% avg

Market Rulebook: Kansas Democratic Senate nominee?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Sandy Spidel Neumann wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Kansas Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
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