Live prediction market odds for Keir Starmer Out?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Kalshi
2027-01-01
Kalshi is tracking the potential departure of Keir Starmer from his leadership position. Factors such as party performance, public opinion, and upcoming elections could influence his tenure and the political landscape in the UK.
Before Sep 1, 2026 leads the “Keir Starmer Out” event at 65.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Before Aug 1, 2026 (56.0%), Before Jul 1, 2026 (30.0%), and Before Jun 1, 2026 (4.0%). Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread.
Factors such as declining party support, internal party challenges, or electoral losses could prompt his exit. Additionally, public sentiment and media scrutiny play crucial roles.
Public opinion can significantly impact a leader's stability, especially during election cycles. Negative polling results may increase pressure for leadership changes within the party.
His departure could lead to a shift in party strategy and influence the upcoming elections. It may also affect the overall political balance in the UK, prompting new leadership dynamics.
Keir Starmer Out is a prediction market event currently tracked across 1 platform (Kalshi). Before Sep 1, 2026 leads at 66% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Before Aug 1, 2026 at 56%, Before Jul 1, 2026 at 30%, Before Jun 1, 2026 at 4%.
Before Sep 1, 2026 currently leads at 66% implied probability. Behind Before Sep 1, 2026, Before Aug 1, 2026 at 56% and Before Jul 1, 2026 at 30% and Before Jun 1, 2026 at 4% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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Before Sep 1, 2026
65.5% avg
