Live prediction market odds for Real Sociedad vs. Rayo Vallecano. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-26
Real Sociedad vs. Rayo Vallecano — La Liga game scheduled for 2026-04-26. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Real Sociedad leads the “Real Sociedad vs. Rayo Vallecano” event at 39.0% implied probability, followed by Draw at 34.8%. A 14.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Real Sociedad vs. Rayo Vallecano is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Real Sociedad leads at 39% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Draw at 35%.
Real Sociedad currently leads at 39% implied probability. Behind Real Sociedad, Draw at 35% are the next closest contenders. The 14.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Real Sociedad: 45¢ on Kalshi, 33¢ on Polymarket. Draw: 42¢ on Kalshi, 28¢ on Polymarket. The 14.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 39¢ means the market estimates a 39% probability that Real Sociedad will be the outcome. Buying one share at 39¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 156% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Tie wins the Vallecano vs Real Sociedad professional La Liga soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 26, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Vallecano vs Real Sociedad professional La Liga soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 26, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
OpinionResolves Yes if the match ends in a draw after regular time. Resolves No if either team wins. Does not apply in competitions where draws are not possible.
PolymarketIn the upcoming game, scheduled for April 26, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Real Sociedad
39.0% avg
