Live prediction market odds for Toluca vs. América. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-18
This market resolved on 2026-04-18. América was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 67%.
Toluca vs. América — Liga MX game held on 2026-04-18. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
AméricaWINNER | 99% | 35% |
Toluca | 1% | 38% |
Draw | 1% | 29% |
Toluca vs. América was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). América led the market at 67% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Toluca at 20%, Draw at 15%.
América held the lead at 67% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind América, Toluca at 20% and Draw at 15% were the next closest contenders. The 64.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: América: 99¢ on Kalshi, 35¢ on Polymarket. Toluca: 1¢ on Kalshi, 38¢ on Polymarket. Draw: 1¢ on Kalshi, 29¢ on Polymarket. The 64.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 67¢ meant the market estimated a 67% chance that América would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 67¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 49% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Toluca wins the America vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the America vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming game, scheduled for April 18, 2026 If Deportivo Toluca FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
América
67.0% avg
