Live prediction market odds for Toluca vs. América. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-18
Toluca vs. América — Liga MX game scheduled for 2026-04-18. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
América leads the “Toluca vs. América” event at 36.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Toluca (35.3%), and Draw (29.8%). Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
Toluca vs. América is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). América leads at 37% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Toluca at 35%, Draw at 30%.
América currently leads at 37% implied probability. Behind América, Toluca at 35% and Draw at 30% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: América: 37¢ on Kalshi, 36¢ on Polymarket. Toluca: 36¢ on Kalshi, 35¢ on Polymarket. Draw: 30¢ on Kalshi, 30¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 37¢ means the market estimates a 37% probability that América will be the outcome. Buying one share at 37¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 170% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Toluca wins the America vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the America vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming game, scheduled for April 18, 2026 If Deportivo Toluca FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
América
36.5% avg
