Live prediction market odds for Ligue 1 Relegation. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-30
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Ligue 1 Relegation event, set to conclude on May 30, 2026. The stakes are high as teams fight to avoid dropping to a lower division, impacting their finances and fan support.
Metz leads the “Ligue 1 Relegation” event at 91.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Le Havre (21.6%), Paris FC (14.6%), Angers (6.3%), and Lorient (1.9%). A 27.3% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Team performance, injuries, and remaining match schedules significantly impact the odds. Additionally, historical performance and financial stability of clubs play a role.
Relegation can lead to substantial financial losses due to decreased broadcasting revenue and sponsorships. It also affects player retention and recruitment strategies.
The Ligue 1 season usually concludes in late May. This timing is crucial for determining which teams face relegation.
Ligue 1 Relegation is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Metz leads at 92% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Le Havre at 22%, Paris FC at 15%, Angers at 6%.
Metz currently leads at 92% implied probability. Behind Metz, Le Havre at 22% and Paris FC at 15% and Angers at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 27.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Metz
91.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf PSG is relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by Ligue 1 following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
