Live prediction market odds for Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-17
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers for the 2025-2026 season. This event is pivotal as it determines which teams secure spots in European competitions, influencing club revenues and player acquisitions.
Lens leads the “Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers” event at 95.7% implied probability. Other contenders include Lille (58.8%), Lyon (58.0%), Rennes (57.5%), and Marseille (53.0%). A 47.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Team performance, player injuries, and head-to-head matchups significantly affect the odds. Additionally, changes in coaching staff and transfer activity can also shift market perceptions.
Clubs that finish in the top 4 qualify for prestigious European competitions, such as the UEFA Champions League. This not only boosts their visibility but also increases revenue through ticket sales and broadcasting rights.
The Ligue 1 season typically concludes in May, with the final matches determining the standings. The exact date for the 2025-2026 season's conclusion is May 17, 2026.
Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Lens leads at 96% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Lille at 59%, Lyon at 58%, Rennes at 58%.
Lens currently leads at 96% implied probability. Behind Lens, Lille at 59% and Lyon at 58% and Rennes at 58% are the next closest contenders. The 47.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 2.5K+ Discord community
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Marseille is a Top 4 Finisher in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Lens
95.7% avg
