Live prediction market odds for Los Angeles Mayoral Election. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-02
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Los Angeles Mayoral Election set for June 2, 2026. This election will determine the city's leadership, influencing local policies and governance in a major urban center.
Asaad Alnajjar leads the “Los Angeles Mayoral Election” event at 28.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Karen Bass (23.0%), Gina Viola (15.1%), and Rick Caruso (5.1%). A 54.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The Los Angeles Mayoral Election plays a crucial role in shaping the city's policies on housing, public safety, and transportation. The elected mayor will have a significant impact on the direction of these key issues.
Prediction markets aggregate real-time data and sentiment about candidates, reflecting public opinion and expert analysis. As events unfold, such as debates or endorsements, the odds can fluctuate significantly.
The election is scheduled for June 2, 2026. Voter turnout and engagement will be critical factors influencing the outcome.
Los Angeles Mayoral Election is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Asaad Alnajjar leads at 28% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Karen Bass at 23%, Gina Viola at 15%, Rick Caruso at 5%.
Asaad Alnajjar currently leads at 28% implied probability. Behind Asaad Alnajjar, Karen Bass at 23% and Gina Viola at 15% and Rick Caruso at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 54.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Karen Bass wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThe 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Asaad Alnajjar
28.0% avg
