Live prediction market odds for Maine Governor winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Maine Governor race ahead of the November 2026 election. This contest is crucial as it could influence state policies and party control in the region.
Democrat leads the “Maine Governor winner” event at 86.8% implied probability, followed by Republican at 14.0%. A 4.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The Maine Governor election is set for November 3, 2026. This date is significant as it coincides with the general election day in the United States.
Factors influencing the odds include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and key endorsements. Additionally, local and national political trends can sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the election outcome. As new information emerges, such as polling data or candidate announcements, the odds can fluctuate accordingly.
Maine Governor winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democrat leads at 87% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican at 14%.
Democrat currently leads at 87% implied probability. Behind Democrat, Republican at 14% are the next closest contenders. The 4.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democrat
86.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Maine pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
