Live prediction market odds for Maine Senate Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Maine Senate Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in the Senate, influencing legislative agendas and national politics.
Democrat leads the “Maine Senate Election Winner” event at 55.0% implied probability, followed by Republican at 45.0%. A 6.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, polling data, and campaign funding. Additionally, national political trends and voter turnout predictions play a significant role.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and perceived probabilities of various candidates winning.
The Maine Senate Election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing is significant as it coincides with the general election, which may drive higher voter engagement.
Maine Senate Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democrat leads at 55% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican at 45%.
Democrat currently leads at 55% implied probability. Behind Democrat, Republican at 45% are the next closest contenders. The 6.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democrat
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Maine for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
55.0% avg
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Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?