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This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

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Live prediction market odds for March 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion.

Kalshi / Polymarket / Opinion

March 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

2026-03-18

About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the March 2026 Fed Combo event, focusing on potential changes to the federal funds rate and dissenting opinions. Market reactions will be influenced by economic indicators, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions leading up to the meeting.

No change leads March 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents at 67.1% implied probability, followed by 25 bps decrease at 0.5%. A 97.7% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

3 platforms
NC
No changeARB
67% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket100¢
Opinion100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
100.0%100¢100¢0¢1¢
OpinionOpinion
100.0%100¢100¢0¢0¢
2B
25 bps decrease
0% Avg
Polymarket0¢
Opinion1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
PolymarketPolymarket
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢
OpinionOpinion
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the Federal Reserve's rate decisions?

Economic indicators such as inflation, unemployment rates, and GDP growth play crucial roles in shaping the Fed's decisions. Additionally, global economic conditions and financial market stability are considered.

What does dissent in the Federal Reserve signify?

Dissent within the Federal Reserve indicates differing opinions among members regarding monetary policy decisions. Such disagreements can reflect varying economic outlooks and influence market perceptions of future policy directions.

How do prediction markets reflect expectations for Fed decisions?

Prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and data, providing insights into market expectations for Federal Reserve actions. Shifts in odds can signal changing sentiments based on new economic data or statements from Fed officials.

What is "March 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents" and why does it matter?

March 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion). No change leads at 67% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include 25 bps decrease at 0%.

What is moving the odds on "March 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents"?

No change currently leads at 67% implied probability. Behind No change, 25 bps decrease at 0% are the next closest contenders. The 97.7% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Bureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor StatisticsFederal Reserve Board of Governors
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclefederalreserve.gov
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread97.7%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

No change

67.1% avg

Market Rulebook: March 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If ALL of the following occur for Mar 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Federal Funds Rate Decision uses FEDDECISION, Dissents uses FOMCDISSENTCOUNT. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.

Resolution Oracles
Bureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor StatisticsFederal Reserve Board of Governors
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclefederalreserve.gov