Live prediction market odds for Megaquake by March 31st, 2026?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion.
Polymarket / Opinion
2026-03-31
Polymarket and Opinion are tracking the likelihood of a megaquake occurring by March 31st, 2026. This event is crucial as it impacts disaster preparedness, insurance markets, and public safety measures in earthquake-prone regions.
Megaquake by March 31st, 2026 is priced at 1.7% implied probability for the “Megaquake by March 31st, 2026” event. A 1.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
A megaquake typically refers to an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher. Such quakes can cause widespread destruction and have significant economic impacts.
Odds are influenced by geological studies, historical earthquake data, and expert analyses. Market participants assess the likelihood based on these factors and current seismic activity.
Consequences can include loss of life, infrastructure damage, and long-term economic disruption. Communities may face challenges in recovery and rebuilding efforts.
Megaquake by March 31st, 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion). Megaquake by March 31st, 2026 leads at 2% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Megaquake by March 31st, 2026 currently leads at 2% implied probability. A 1.1% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Megaquake by March 31st, 2026
1.7% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket.
PolymarketA "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
