Live prediction market odds for Men's Australian Open Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-01
This market resolved on 2026-02-01. Carlos Alcaraz was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Carlos AlcarazWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Alex de Minaur | 1% | 50% |
Alexander Bublik | 1% | 50% |
Alexander Zverev | 1% | 50% |
Andrey Rublev | 1% | 50% |
Ben Shelton | 1% | 50% |
Casper Ruud | 1% | 50% |
Daniil Medvedev | 1% | 50% |
Frances Tiafoe | 1% | 50% |
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 1% | 50% |
Hubert Hurkacz | 1% | 50% |
Jakub Mensik | 1% | 50% |
Jannik Sinner | 1% | 50% |
Joao Fonseca | 1% | 50% |
Learner Tien | 1% | 50% |
Lorenzo Musetti | 1% | 50% |
Novak Djokovic | 1% | 50% |
Taylor Fritz | 1% | 50% |
Tommy Paul | 1% | 50% |
Men's Australian Open Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Carlos Alcaraz led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Alex de Minaur at 26%, Alexander Bublik at 26%, Alexander Zverev at 26%.
Carlos Alcaraz held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Carlos Alcaraz, Alex de Minaur at 26% and Alexander Bublik at 26% and Alexander Zverev at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Carlos Alcaraz: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Alex de Minaur: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Alexander Bublik: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Alexander Zverev: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Carlos Alcaraz would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Carlos Alcaraz
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Alex de Minaur wins the 2026 Men's Australian Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the 2026 Men's Australian Open professional tennis tournament. If the participant forfeits, withdraws from consideration, or takes any official action that removes them from being able to win the 2026 Men's Australian Open professional tennis tournament, the market will resolve “No” for that participant.
