Live prediction market odds for Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
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Polymarket / Opinion / Predict.fun
2027-01-01
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
$1B leads the “Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch” event at 44.7% implied probability. Other contenders include $700M (27.2%), $2B (34.0%), $3B (6.5%), and $4B (4.9%). A 82.7% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun). $1B leads at 45% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include $700M at 31%, $2B at 88%, $3B at 9%.
$1B currently leads at 45% implied probability. Behind $1B, $700M at 31% and $2B at 88% and $3B at 9% are the next closest contenders. The 82.7% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun: $1B: 81¢ on Polymarket. $700M: 31¢ on Polymarket. $2B: 88¢ on Polymarket. $3B: 9¢ on Polymarket. The 82.7% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 45¢ means the market estimates a 45% probability that $1B will be the outcome. Buying one share at 45¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 122% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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$1B
44.7% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion and Predict.fun.
OpinionThis market will resolve to "Yes" if, 1 day after launch, the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the project's token (as specified in the market title) is greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is this CoinMarketCap 5-minute price chart with the chart set to the 24-hour (24h) range. If CoinMarketCap later modifies, backfills, or revises the historical data, this market will use the value of the data point as it was first reported by CoinMarketCap for that timestamp, ignoring any subsequent changes. If the project listed in the title does not launch a token (as defined above) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Predict.fun{'description': 'This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask\'s token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\n"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn\'t launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".'}
