Live prediction market odds for MI-11 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-08-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the MI-11 Democratic nominee for the upcoming election. The outcome will influence party dynamics and strategies leading into the general election, making it a focal point for political analysts and voters alike.
Jeremy Moss leads MI-11 Democratic nominee at 80.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Andy Levin (8.0%), Aisha Farooqi (3.3%), and Dave Woodward (2.3%). A 3.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts are key factors that shape the odds. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and campaign strategies can significantly impact predictions.
The nominee will represent the Democratic Party in a competitive district, influencing voter turnout and party cohesion. A strong candidate could enhance the party's chances in the general election.
The nomination decision is expected to be finalized by August 2026, ahead of the general election. This timeline allows candidates to campaign effectively and engage with voters.
MI-11 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Jeremy Moss leads at 81% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Andy Levin at 8%, Aisha Farooqi at 3%, Dave Woodward at 2%.
Jeremy Moss currently leads at 81% implied probability. Behind Jeremy Moss, Andy Levin at 8% and Aisha Farooqi at 3% and Dave Woodward at 2% are the next closest contenders. A 3.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Jeremy Moss
80.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Aisha Farooqi wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MI-11 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
