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Live prediction market odds for Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

2026-08-11

About This Market

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Prediction markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee for the upcoming 2026 election. The outcome will influence party dynamics and strategies in a key battleground state as candidates vie for voter support and endorsements leading up to the primary.

Peggy Flanagan leads the “Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee” event at 81.3% implied probability, followed by Angie Craig at 18.2%. A 6.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Live Markets

3 platforms
PF
Peggy Flanagan
80% Avg
Kalshi81¢
Polymarket80¢
PredictIt85¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
80.0%79¢81¢19¢21¢
PolymarketPolymarket
79.0%78¢80¢20¢22¢
PredictItPredictIt
81.5%78¢85¢15¢22¢
AC
Angie Craig
18% Avg
Kalshi20¢
Polymarket18¢
PredictIt20¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
18.0%16¢20¢80¢84¢
PolymarketPolymarket
16.5%15¢18¢82¢85¢
PredictItPredictIt
18.0%16¢20¢80¢84¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Peggy Flanagan

Peggy Flanagan is the Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota, serving since 2019. She previously represented District 46A in the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019. She announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate in February 2025, seeking the seat held by Tina Smith.

About Angie Craig

Angie Craig is a U.S. Representative from Minnesota's 2nd District, serving since 2019. She previously worked as an executive at medical device companies. She is running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Senator Tina Smith in 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts significantly impact the odds. Additionally, public sentiment and key issues in Minnesota can sway voter preferences.

How does the primary election process work in Minnesota?

Minnesota uses a primary election system where voters select their preferred candidates for the general election. The results determine which candidates will represent the Democratic Party in the Senate race.

What role do prediction markets play in electoral outcomes?

Prediction markets aggregate collective insights and expectations about electoral outcomes, often reflecting real-time public sentiment. They can provide a unique perspective on candidate viability and potential election results.

What is "Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?" and why does it matter?

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Peggy Flanagan leads at 81% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Angie Craig at 18%.

What is moving the odds on "Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?"?

Peggy Flanagan currently leads at 81% implied probability. Behind Peggy Flanagan, Angie Craig at 18% are the next closest contenders. The 6.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread6.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Peggy Flanagan

81.3% avg

Market Rulebook: Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Peggy Flanagan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
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