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Live prediction market odds for Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner

2026-08-11

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner for the upcoming election on August 11, 2026. This primary will play a crucial role in determining the Democratic candidate who will compete for a Senate seat, influencing party dynamics and legislative priorities.

Peggy Flanagan leads the “Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner” event at 76.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Betty McCollum (45.5%), Steve Simon (25.5%), Angie Craig (21.8%), and Keith Ellison (15.5%). A 89.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
PF
Peggy Flanagan
76% Avg
Kalshi78¢
Polymarket77¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
76.5%75¢78¢22¢25¢
PolymarketPolymarket
76.0%75¢77¢23¢25¢
BM
Betty McCollumARB
45% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
90.0%80¢100¢0¢20¢
SS
Steve SimonARB
25% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket70¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%30¢70¢30¢70¢
AC
Angie Craig
22% Avg
Kalshi25¢
Polymarket22¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
22.5%20¢25¢75¢80¢
PolymarketPolymarket
21.0%20¢22¢78¢80¢
KE
Keith EllisonARB
20% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket60¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
40.0%20¢60¢40¢80¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Peggy Flanagan

Peggy Flanagan is the Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota and a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe. She served in the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019. She is running for the U.S. Senate in 2026.

About Angie Craig

Angie Craig is a Democratic U.S. Representative from Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District. She was elected as the first woman and openly LGBTQ+ ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee in December 2024. Craig is running for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Senator Tina Smith in the 2026 election.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds in the Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign fundraising efforts are key factors affecting the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and current political issues in Minnesota can shift market predictions.

How does the primary affect the general election?

The winner of the primary will represent the Democratic Party in the general election, impacting the party's chances of retaining or gaining a Senate seat. This can also influence national party strategies and resource allocation.

What is the timeline for the Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary?

The primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026, with candidates campaigning intensively in the months leading up to the election. Key dates include filing deadlines, debates, and voter registration periods.

What is "Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner" and why does it matter?

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Peggy Flanagan leads at 77% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Betty McCollum at 46%, Steve Simon at 26%, Angie Craig at 22%.

What is moving the odds on "Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner"?

Peggy Flanagan currently leads at 77% implied probability. Behind Peggy Flanagan, Betty McCollum at 46% and Steve Simon at 26% and Angie Craig at 22% are the next closest contenders. The 89.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread89.0%
Platforms2

Market Rulebook: Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Peggy Flanagan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
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Candidates9
Leader

Peggy Flanagan

76.5% avg