Question 1

What factors influence the odds in the Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary?

Accepted Answer

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign fundraising efforts are key factors affecting the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and current political issues in Minnesota can shift market predictions.

Question 2

How does the primary affect the general election?

Accepted Answer

The winner of the primary will represent the Democratic Party in the general election, impacting the party's chances of retaining or gaining a Senate seat. This can also influence national party strategies and resource allocation.

Question 3

What is the timeline for the Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary?

Accepted Answer

The primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026, with candidates campaigning intensively in the months leading up to the election. Key dates include filing deadlines, debates, and voter registration periods.

Question 4

What is "Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Peggy Flanagan leads at 85% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Ilhan Omar at 23%, Angie Craig at 16%, Betty McCollum at 15%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner"?

Accepted Answer

Peggy Flanagan currently leads at 85% implied probability. Behind Peggy Flanagan, Ilhan Omar at 23% and Angie Craig at 16% and Betty McCollum at 15% are the next closest contenders. The 44.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Peggy Flanagan: 86¢ on Kalshi, 84¢ on Polymarket. Ilhan Omar: 1¢ on Kalshi, 45¢ on Polymarket. Angie Craig: 17¢ on Kalshi, 15¢ on Polymarket. Betty McCollum: 0¢ on Kalshi, 30¢ on Polymarket. The 44.3% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Peggy Flanagan is at 85%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 85¢ means the market estimates a 85% probability that Peggy Flanagan will be the outcome. Buying one share at 85¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 18% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	85.5%	85¢	86¢	14¢	15¢
Polymarket	83.5%	83¢	84¢	16¢	17¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.0%	0¢	2¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	45.0%	20¢	70¢	30¢	80¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	15.5%	14¢	17¢	83¢	86¢
Polymarket	15.0%	14¢	16¢	84¢	86¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	60.0%	30¢	90¢	10¢	70¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	15.0%	10¢	20¢	80¢	90¢

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner

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Market Rulebook: Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner