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Live prediction market odds for Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

2026-08-11

About This Market

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Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the race for the Minnesota Republican Senate nominee. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate during the 2026 elections, with candidates vying for critical support from party factions and voters.

Michele Tafoya leads the “Minnesota Republican Senate nominee” event at 82.0% implied probability, followed by Tom Weiler at 14.3%. A 39.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
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Live Markets

3 platforms
MT
Michele Tafoya
77% Avg
Kalshi82¢
Polymarket81¢
PredictIt85¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
81.5%81¢82¢18¢19¢
PolymarketPolymarket
77.5%74¢81¢19¢26¢
PredictItPredictIt
72.0%59¢85¢15¢41¢
TW
Tom WeilerARB
28% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket60¢
PredictIt74¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
45.0%30¢60¢40¢70¢
PredictItPredictIt
38.0%2¢74¢26¢98¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and endorsements play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, polling data and voter sentiment can significantly impact predictions as the election date approaches.

How does the Minnesota Republican Senate nominee affect the Senate balance?

The nominee's success could either strengthen or weaken the Republican presence in the Senate. Given the current political climate, every seat is vital for achieving a majority.

When is the primary election for the Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

The primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This date is critical as it determines which candidate will represent the party in the general election.

What is "Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?" and why does it matter?

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Michele Tafoya leads at 82% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Tom Weiler at 14%.

What is moving the odds on "Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?"?

Michele Tafoya currently leads at 82% implied probability. Behind Michele Tafoya, Tom Weiler at 14% are the next closest contenders. The 39.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread39.1%
Platforms3

Market Rulebook: Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Michele Tafoya wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
Candidates2
Leader

Michele Tafoya

82.0% avg