Prediction Hunt logoPrediction Hunt
MarketsSmart MoneyArbitrageTrendingPaper TradingAPIPricing
Live
Prediction Hunt

Compare prediction market odds across every platform. Find the best prices and track smart money.

Markets

  • Elections
  • Sports
  • Crypto
  • Entertainment
  • US Presidential Election Hub
  • Archive

Tools

  • Trending
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Calculators
  • News
  • Blog

Community

  • Discord
  • Twitter / X
  • Tools
  • About
  • Affiliate Program
  • API Terms of Service

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

MarketsWhalesArbTrending
ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 78.2% // +$7820.00

Live prediction market odds for Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.

Discord
Follow on X

Kalshi / Polymarket

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

2026-08-11

About This Market

Share

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner for the upcoming election on August 11, 2026. This primary is crucial as it will determine the Republican candidate who will compete for a Senate seat, impacting party dynamics and strategies leading into the general election.

David Hann leads the “Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner” event at 40.9% implied probability. Other contenders include Julia Coleman (20.5%), Kristin Robbins (20.5%), Adam Schwarze (11.8%), and Royce White (7.0%). A 78.2% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
DH
David HannARB
26% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket80¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%20¢80¢20¢80¢
JC
Julia ColemanARB
23% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
45.0%40¢50¢50¢60¢
KR
Kristin RobbinsARB
13% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket40¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
25.0%10¢40¢60¢90¢
AS
Adam Schwarze
12% Avg
Kalshi14¢
Polymarket17¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
12.0%10¢14¢86¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
12.5%8¢17¢83¢92¢
RW
Royce White
7% Avg
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket8¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
8.0%8¢8¢92¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.5%5¢8¢92¢95¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Adam Schwarze

Adam Schwarze is a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate seat from Minnesota in the 2026 election. He is a former Navy SEAL. He is relevant to this prediction market as a contender in the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary.

About Royce White

Royce White is a Republican candidate for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota. He was the GOP nominee in the 2024 Senate race, losing to incumbent Amy Klobuchar. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he seeks to secure the Republican nomination for the upcoming election.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary?

The primary will decide which Republican candidate will represent the party in the Senate race. This decision can influence the party's overall strategy and voter turnout in the general election.

How do prediction markets reflect candidate chances in the primary?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning. As new information emerges, such as polling data and endorsements, the odds can fluctuate significantly.

What factors can influence the odds in this primary market?

Factors include candidate debate performances, fundraising success, and shifts in voter sentiment. Additionally, external events like national political trends can also impact the odds.

What is "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner" and why does it matter?

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). David Hann leads at 41% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Julia Coleman at 21%, Kristin Robbins at 21%, Adam Schwarze at 12%.

What is moving the odds on "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner"?

David Hann currently leads at 41% implied probability. Behind David Hann, Julia Coleman at 21% and Kristin Robbins at 21% and Adam Schwarze at 12% are the next closest contenders. The 78.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Automate This Market

Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner” event. All for free.

As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et

Used by builders and traders in our 3K+ Discord community

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread78.2%
Platforms2

Market Rulebook: Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Julia Coleman wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
Candidates7
Leader

David Hann

40.9% avg