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Live prediction market odds for Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

2026-08-11

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner for the upcoming election on August 11, 2026. This primary is crucial as it will determine the Republican candidate who will compete for a Senate seat, impacting party dynamics and strategies leading into the general election.

Tom Weiler leads the “Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner” event at 30.4% implied probability. Other contenders include Adam Schwarze (11.9%), Julia Coleman (10.5%), Kristin Robbins (10.5%), and Royce White (10.2%). A 59.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
TW
Tom WeilerARB
28% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket70¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
55.0%40¢70¢30¢60¢
AS
Adam Schwarze
12% Avg
Kalshi11¢
Polymarket20¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
9.0%7¢11¢89¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
15.0%10¢20¢80¢90¢
JC
Julia ColemanARB
15% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket40¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
30.0%20¢40¢60¢80¢
KR
Kristin RobbinsARB
13% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket30¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
25.0%20¢30¢70¢80¢
RW
Royce White
9% Avg
Kalshi15¢
Polymarket13¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
10.0%5¢15¢85¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.5%2¢13¢87¢98¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Adam Schwarze

Adam Schwarze is a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate seat from Minnesota in the 2026 election. He is a former Navy SEAL. He is relevant to this prediction market as a contender in the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary.

About Royce White

Royce White is a Republican candidate for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota. He was the GOP nominee in the 2024 Senate race, losing to incumbent Amy Klobuchar. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he seeks to secure the Republican nomination for the upcoming election.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary?

The primary will decide which Republican candidate will represent the party in the Senate race. This decision can influence the party's overall strategy and voter turnout in the general election.

How do prediction markets reflect candidate chances in the primary?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning. As new information emerges, such as polling data and endorsements, the odds can fluctuate significantly.

What factors can influence the odds in this primary market?

Factors include candidate debate performances, fundraising success, and shifts in voter sentiment. Additionally, external events like national political trends can also impact the odds.

What is "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner" and why does it matter?

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Tom Weiler leads at 30% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Adam Schwarze at 12%, Julia Coleman at 11%, Kristin Robbins at 11%.

What is moving the odds on "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner"?

Tom Weiler currently leads at 30% implied probability. Behind Tom Weiler, Adam Schwarze at 12% and Julia Coleman at 11% and Kristin Robbins at 11% are the next closest contenders. The 59.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread59.1%
Platforms2

Market Rulebook: Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Julia Coleman wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
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Candidates7
Leader

Tom Weiler

30.4% avg