Live prediction market odds for Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals (4:05 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-16
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals (4:05 PM ET) — MLB game scheduled for 2026-05-16. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Washington Nationals leads the “Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals (4:05 PM ET)” event at 54.3% implied probability, followed by Baltimore Orioles at 47.0%. A 2.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals (4:05 PM ET) is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Washington Nationals leads at 54% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Baltimore Orioles at 47%.
Washington Nationals currently leads at 54% implied probability. Behind Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles at 47% are the next closest contenders. A 2.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Washington Nationals: 55¢ on Kalshi, 54¢ on Polymarket. Baltimore Orioles: 48¢ on Kalshi, 46¢ on Polymarket. The 2.0% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 54¢ means the market estimates a 54% probability that Washington Nationals will be the outcome. Buying one share at 54¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 85% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Baltimore wins the Baltimore vs Washington professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Baltimore vs Washington professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals, scheduled for May 16 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Washington Nationals
54.3% avg
