Live prediction market odds for Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (4:05 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and ProphetX.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / ProphetX
Resolved 2026-05-02
This market resolved on 2026-05-02. Pittsburgh Pirates was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 78%.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (4:05 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-05-02. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh PiratesWINNER | 99% | 57% |
Cincinnati Reds | 1% | 44% |
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (4:05 PM ET) was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, ProphetX). Pittsburgh Pirates led the market at 78% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Cincinnati Reds at 23%.
Pittsburgh Pirates held the lead at 78% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds at 23% were the next closest contenders. The 43.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, ProphetX: Pittsburgh Pirates: 99¢ on Kalshi, 57¢ on ProphetX. Cincinnati Reds: 1¢ on Kalshi, 44¢ on ProphetX. The 43.2% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 78¢ meant the market estimated a 78% chance that Pittsburgh Pirates would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 78¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 28% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Cincinnati wins the Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 2, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 2, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for May 2 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
ProphetXSports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
Pittsburgh Pirates
77.9% avg
