Live prediction market odds for Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals (7:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX
Resolved 2026-05-06
This market resolved on 2026-05-06. Cleveland Guardians was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals (7:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-05-06. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland GuardiansWINNER | 99% | 37% | 98% |
Kansas City Royals | 1% | 63% | 6% |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals (7:40 PM ET) was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX). Cleveland Guardians led the market at 78% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Kansas City Royals at 23%.
Cleveland Guardians held the lead at 78% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals at 23% were the next closest contenders. The 62.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX: Cleveland Guardians: 99¢ on Kalshi, 37¢ on Polymarket, 98¢ on ProphetX. Kansas City Royals: 1¢ on Kalshi, 63¢ on Polymarket, 6¢ on ProphetX. The 62.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 78¢ meant the market estimated a 78% chance that Cleveland Guardians would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 78¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 28% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Cleveland wins the Cleveland vs Kansas City professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 7:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Cleveland vs Kansas City professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 7:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for May 6 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
ProphetXSports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
Cleveland Guardians
78.0% avg
