Live prediction market odds for Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-16
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET) — MLB game scheduled for 2026-05-16. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Tampa Bay Rays leads the “Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET)” event at 56.3% implied probability, followed by Miami Marlins at 44.3%. A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET) is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Tampa Bay Rays leads at 56% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Miami Marlins at 44%.
Tampa Bay Rays currently leads at 56% implied probability. Behind Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins at 44% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Tampa Bay Rays: 58¢ on Kalshi, 55¢ on Polymarket. Miami Marlins: 43¢ on Kalshi, 46¢ on Polymarket. The 3.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 56¢ means the market estimates a 56% probability that Tampa Bay Rays will be the outcome. Buying one share at 56¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 79% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Miami wins the Miami vs Tampa Bay professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Miami vs Tampa Bay professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for May 16 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Tampa Bay Rays
56.3% avg
