Live prediction market odds for New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX
Resolved 2026-05-23
This market resolved on 2026-05-23. Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5 was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-05-23. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5WINNER | 99% | 100% | — |
Total over 4.5 | 99% | 100% | — |
Over 1.5 runs scored | 99% |
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET) was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX). Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5 led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Total over 4.5 at 99%, Over 1.5 runs scored at 99%, Over 2.5 runs scored at 99%.
Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5 held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5, Total over 4.5 at 99% and Over 1.5 runs scored at 99% and Over 2.5 runs scored at 99% were the next closest contenders. The 5.4% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX: Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Total over 4.5: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Over 1.5 runs scored: 99¢ on Kalshi. Over 2.5 runs scored: 99¢ on Kalshi. The 5.4% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5 would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
KalshiIf New York M wins the New York M vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 23, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the New York M vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 23, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins, scheduled for May 23 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
ProphetXSports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
| — |
| — |
Over 2.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — |
Over 3.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — |
Miami Marlins spread minus 1.5 | 98% | 100% | — |
Miami Marlins | 99% | — | 98% |
New York Mets | 1% | — | 6% |
Miami Marlins spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | — |
New York Mets spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | — |
New York Mets spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | — |
New York Mets spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | — |
Over 11.5 runs scored | 1% | — | — |
Total over 10.5 | 1% | — | — |
Total over 5.5 | 1% | — | — |
Total over 6.5 | 1% | — | — |
Total over 7.5 | 1% | — | — |
Total over 8.5 | 1% | — | — |
Total over 9.5 | 1% | — | — |
New York Mets spread plus 2.5 | — | 0% | — |
Total under 4.5 | — | 0% | — |
New York Mets spread plus 1.5 | — | 0% | — |
Miami Marlins spread plus 1.5 | — | — | — |
Miami Marlins spread plus 2.5 | — | — | — |
Miami Marlins spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — |
Miami Marlins spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — |
New York Mets spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — |
New York Mets spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — |
Total under 10.5 | — | — | — |
Total under 5.5 | — | — | — |
Total under 6.5 | — | — | — |
Total under 7.5 | — | — | — |
Total under 8.5 | — | — | — |
Total under 9.5 | — | — | — |
Miami Marlins
98.3% avg
