Live prediction market odds for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (4:05 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-16
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (4:05 PM ET) — MLB game scheduled for 2026-05-16. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Philadelphia Phillies leads the “Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (4:05 PM ET)” event at 52.5% implied probability, followed by Pittsburgh Pirates at 47.0%. A 4.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (4:05 PM ET) is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Philadelphia Phillies leads at 53% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Pittsburgh Pirates at 47%.
Philadelphia Phillies currently leads at 53% implied probability. Behind Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates at 47% are the next closest contenders. The 4.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Philadelphia Phillies: 54¢ on Kalshi, 51¢ on Polymarket. Pittsburgh Pirates: 45¢ on Kalshi, 49¢ on Polymarket. The 4.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 53¢ means the market estimates a 53% probability that Philadelphia Phillies will be the outcome. Buying one share at 53¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 89% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Philadelphia wins the Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for May 16 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Philadelphia Phillies
52.5% avg
