Live prediction market odds for San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners (9:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-15
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners (9:40 PM ET) — MLB game scheduled for 2026-05-15. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Seattle Mariners leads the “San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners (9:40 PM ET)” event at 58.0% implied probability, followed by San Diego Padres at 43.5%. A 5.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners (9:40 PM ET) is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Seattle Mariners leads at 58% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include San Diego Padres at 44%.
Seattle Mariners currently leads at 58% implied probability. Behind Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres at 44% are the next closest contenders. The 5.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Seattle Mariners: 57¢ on Kalshi, 59¢ on Polymarket. San Diego Padres: 46¢ on Kalshi, 41¢ on Polymarket. The 5.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 58¢ means the market estimates a 58% probability that Seattle Mariners will be the outcome. Buying one share at 58¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 72% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Seattle wins the San Diego vs Seattle professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the San Diego vs Seattle professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for May 15 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Seattle Mariners
58.0% avg
