Live prediction market odds for Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-09
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET) — MLB game scheduled for 2026-05-09. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Miami Marlins leads the “Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET)” event at 61.5% implied probability, followed by Washington Nationals at 39.5%. A 7.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET) is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Miami Marlins leads at 62% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Washington Nationals at 40%.
Miami Marlins currently leads at 62% implied probability. Behind Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals at 40% are the next closest contenders. The 7.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Miami Marlins: 59¢ on Kalshi, 64¢ on Polymarket. Washington Nationals: 43¢ on Kalshi, 36¢ on Polymarket. The 7.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 62¢ means the market estimates a 62% probability that Miami Marlins will be the outcome. Buying one share at 62¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 61% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Miami Marlins
61.5% avg
