Live prediction market odds for MN-02 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MN-02 House race for the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest will influence the balance of power in Congress and reflects broader political trends in the region.
Democratic Party leads the “MN-02 House winner” event at 50.3% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 8.5%. A 77.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout. Local issues and national political climate also play significant roles.
The outcome can shift the majority in the House of Representatives, impacting legislative priorities. A change in party control could lead to significant policy changes.
The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle for federal offices.
MN-02 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 50% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 8%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 50% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 8% are the next closest contenders. The 77.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
50.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for MN-2 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
