Live prediction market odds for Montana Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-11-03
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the Montana Senate winner for the upcoming election on November 3, 2026. The outcome will influence the balance of power in the Senate, making it a focal point for both state and national political strategies.
Republican party leads the “Montana Senate winner” event at 78.2% implied probability, followed by Democratic party at 6.8%. A 11.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can sway voter sentiment.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on the likelihood of specific outcomes. Prices reflect collective beliefs about the event's probability, informed by various data points.
Control of the Senate is at stake, which can affect legislation and governance. The election outcome may also impact future political alignments and party strategies.
Montana Senate winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Republican party leads at 78% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic party at 7%.
Republican party currently leads at 78% implied probability. Behind Republican party, Democratic party at 7% are the next closest contenders. The 11.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Republican party
78.2% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
