Live prediction market odds for MT-01 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Samuel Forstag was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 95%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Democratic nominee for Montana's At-Large congressional district in 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence party control in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the state.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Samuel ForstagWINNER | 94% | 96% |
Ryan Busse | 1% | 3% |
Russell Cleveland | 1% | 3% |
Matt Rains | 0% | 0% |
Polling data, candidate fundraising, and endorsements play significant roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, local and national political trends can impact voter preferences.
Winning MT-01 could help the Democratic Party maintain or gain seats in Congress, influencing their legislative agenda. The outcome may also serve as a barometer for the party's appeal in rural areas.
The nominee will be decided during the primary elections scheduled for June 2026. Candidates will campaign and seek voter support leading up to this date.
MT-01 Democratic nominee was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Samuel Forstag led the market at 95% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Ryan Busse at 2%, Russell Cleveland at 2%, Matt Rains at 0%.
Samuel Forstag held the lead at 95% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Samuel Forstag, Ryan Busse at 2% and Russell Cleveland at 2% and Matt Rains at 0% were the next closest contenders. A 2.2% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Samuel Forstag
95.1% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Russell Cleveland wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MT-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
