Live prediction market odds for MT-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MT-01 House race in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest will play a crucial role in determining the balance of power in Congress, influencing legislative priorities and national policies.
Republican Party leads the “MT-01 House winner” event at 52.8% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 47.8%. A 4.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, national political climate and local issues can sway public opinion.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.
The MT-01 House race is significant as it could impact the overall control of the House of Representatives. A shift in power may lead to changes in legislative agendas and priorities.
MT-01 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 53% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 48%.
Republican Party currently leads at 53% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 48% are the next closest contenders. The 4.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Republican Party
52.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for MT-1 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
