Live prediction market odds for Heat vs. Pistons. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-01
This market resolved on 2026-01-01. Miami Heat was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 68%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Miami HeatWINNER | 99% | 37% |
Detroit Pistons | 1% | 64% |
Heat vs. Pistons was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Miami Heat led the market at 68% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Detroit Pistons at 32%.
Miami Heat held the lead at 68% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Miami Heat, Detroit Pistons at 32% were the next closest contenders. The 62.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Miami Heat: 99¢ on Kalshi, 37¢ on Polymarket. Detroit Pistons: 1¢ on Kalshi, 64¢ on Polymarket. The 62.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 68¢ meant the market estimated a 68% chance that Miami Heat would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 68¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 47% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Miami Heat
67.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Detroit wins the Miami vs Detroit professional basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
