Live prediction market odds for Heat vs. Warriors. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-19
This market resolved on 2026-01-19. Golden State Warriors was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 81%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Golden State WarriorsWINNER | 99% | 64% |
Miami Heat | 1% | 37% |
Heat vs. Warriors was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Golden State Warriors led the market at 81% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Miami Heat at 19%.
Golden State Warriors held the lead at 81% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat at 19% were the next closest contenders. The 35.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Golden State Warriors: 99¢ on Kalshi, 64¢ on Polymarket. Miami Heat: 1¢ on Kalshi, 37¢ on Polymarket. The 35.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 81¢ meant the market estimated a 81% chance that Golden State Warriors would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 81¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 23% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Golden State Warriors
81.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Golden State wins the Miami at Golden State professional basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
