Live prediction market odds for Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX
2026-03-21
nba-mia-hou-2026-03-21 : Sports event: Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets - nba
Miami Heat leads the “Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets” event at 40.9% implied probability, followed by Houston Rockets at 61.7%. A 75.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX). Miami Heat leads at 41% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Houston Rockets at 62%.
Miami Heat currently leads at 41% implied probability. Behind Miami Heat, Houston Rockets at 62% are the next closest contenders. The 75.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX: Miami Heat: 1¢ on Kalshi, 45¢ on Polymarket, 77¢ on ProphetX. Houston Rockets: 99¢ on Kalshi, 55¢ on Polymarket, 31¢ on ProphetX. The 75.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 41¢ means the market estimates a 41% probability that Miami Heat will be the outcome. Buying one share at 41¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 144% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Houston wins the Miami at Houston professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketIn the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 21 at 8:00PM ET: If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
ProphetXSports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
Miami Heat
40.9% avg
