Live prediction market odds for Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-03-21
nba-mia-hou-2026-03-21 : Sports event: Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets - nba
Houston Rockets leads the “Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets” event at 58.8% implied probability, followed by Miami Heat at 43.8%. A 6.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Houston Rockets leads at 59% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Miami Heat at 44%.
Houston Rockets currently leads at 59% implied probability. Behind Houston Rockets, Miami Heat at 44% are the next closest contenders. The 6.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Houston Rockets: 58¢ on Kalshi, 60¢ on Polymarket. Miami Heat: 47¢ on Kalshi, 41¢ on Polymarket. The 6.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 59¢ means the market estimates a 59% probability that Houston Rockets will be the outcome. Buying one share at 59¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 69% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
Houston Rockets
58.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Houston wins the Miami at Houston professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketIn the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 21 at 8:00PM ET: If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
