Live prediction market odds for Heat vs. Magic. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-12-05
This market resolved on 2025-12-05. Orlando was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 83%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
OrlandoWINNER | 99% | 68% |
OrlandoWINNER | 99% | 28% |
Miami Heat | 1% | 73% |
Miami Heat | 1% | 33% |
Heat vs. Magic was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Orlando led the market at 83% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Orlando at 63%, Miami Heat at 37%, Miami Heat at 17%.
Orlando held the lead at 83% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Orlando, Orlando at 63% and Miami Heat at 37% and Miami Heat at 17% were the next closest contenders. The 71.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Orlando: 99¢ on Kalshi, 68¢ on Polymarket. Orlando: 99¢ on Kalshi, 28¢ on Polymarket. Miami Heat: 1¢ on Kalshi, 73¢ on Polymarket. Miami Heat: 1¢ on Kalshi, 33¢ on Polymarket. The 71.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 83¢ meant the market estimated a 83% chance that Orlando would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 83¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 20% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Orlando
83.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Orlando wins the Miami vs Orlando professional basketball game originally scheduled for Dec 5, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
